FM Global Earthquake Map FM Global Earthquake Map

FM Global Worldwide Earthquake Map

Improved understanding of earthquake risk

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FM Global has developed the Worldwide Earthquake Map to provide a consistent and comprehensive understanding of earthquake risk worldwide. It is the only publicly available map directly conveying earthquake risk. This is achieved by displaying earthquake zones that combine, in a single measure, the three components of seismic risk: bedrock shaking, amplification of bedrock shaking by local site soils, and the effect of that ground shaking on the built environment.

NatHaz Toolkit

For more information, visit the earthquake section of the NatHaz Toolkit on fmglobal.com

The map was created using the same proprietary approach as earlier FM Global earthquake maps. Earthquake risk zone changes result from incorporating recent seismic hazard and building vulnerability data, primarily from the , and highly detailed soil data developed by FM Global research scientists. Click on the tabs at the right for more information on the four drivers of earthquake zone changes.

Updated worldwide seismic hazard

Local soils can vary over short distances and softer soils significantly increase ground shaking levels. Therefore, FM Global research scientists assigned soil types on a maximum 1 km x 1 km grid worldwide based on thousands of digital geology maps, and other sources. State-of-the-art soil amplification factors were also applied.

Highly detailed soil data

FM Global research scientists modified the vulnerability threshold used to define earthquake zones to be representative of a broad range of weak buildings, consistent with the GEM damage functions for global building types, and independently verified that the threshold is appropriate for non-structural components as well.

Refined vulnerability threshold

Higher resolution

Refined vulnerability threshold

Highly detailed soil data

Updated worldwide seismic hazard

The widely recognized GEM Foundation worldwide mosaic of seismic hazard models is utilized as the primary source of seismic hazard. The GEM models were updated or supplemented in limited areas, most notably China, the United States and Greenland, when appropriate based on the expert knowledge of FM Global research scientists.

Updated worldwide seismic hazard

Highly detailed soil data

Refined vulnerability threshold

Higher resolution

Final processing was modified to retain high resolution of earthquake zones. Calculated accelerations are now averaged within a smaller window than used previously (i.e., reduced smoothing). This better preserves the effects of underlying soil on earthquake risk zones, a primary benefit of utilizing highly detailed soil data.

Higher resolution

Highly detailed soil data

Refined vulnerability threshold

Reduced smoothing

Updated worldwide seismic hazard

On a worldwide basis, the updated seismic hazard models and use of detailed soil data are the main drivers of earthquake risk zone change.

In the Worldwide Earthquake Map, earthquake risk for most client locations (87%) does not change. Risk increases and decreases are split about equally for the remaining locations, most of which are concentrated in 20 countries. FM Global engineering and underwriting applied within each earthquake risk zone is not changing. However, movement of a location between different earthquake zones may impact the level of engineering servicing, or change capacity and deductible requirements.

Majority of earthquake risk is not changing

The primary drivers for earthquake risk zone changes having the most significant effect on client locations are described below. The drivers of risk changes affecting the majority of client locations in a country do not necessarily apply to all locations nor to areas with no locations. Please consult with your FM Global client service team to review location-specific impacts.

Earthquake risk in your region

Asia Pacific

North America

Europe/ Middle East

Many clients will see an increase in earthquake risk. In the northern part of the west coast near Vadodara, this is due to softer soils and the refined vulnerability threshold. In the southern part of the east coast near Chennai, it’s because of the increased hazard and softer soils. Many clients in the central west coast near Mumbai will see a decrease in earthquake risk, and this is because of the harder soils.

Asia Pacific

Many client locations will see an increase in the earthquake risk. The new map uses the same seismic hazard model as the previous map. This was developed in 2018 by FM Global with the Institute of Geology of the China Earthquake Administration. Risk increases are because of the refined vulnerability threshold in combination with higher resolution (mainland China) and softer soils (Hong Kong).

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Risk decreases for many locations throughout Thailand and Malaysia because of the lower hazard. Harder soil is sometimes a factor in Malaysia. In Singapore, many locations decrease in risk, mostly because of harder soils.

There is a decrease in earthquake risk throughout the country except for the area around Darwin. All changes are because of the seismic hazard.

Many locations will notice an increase in earthquake risk, especially near Auckland. This is primarily due to softer soils and higher resolution, with the seismic hazard playing a smaller role.

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Many locations in California will see an increase in the earthquake risk. In western Sacramento, these increases are due to the refined vulnerability threshold and softer soils. From northeast of Sacramento to Fresno, the revised vulnerability threshold is the main driver with increased seismic hazard also contributing. South of Fresno to Bakersfield, softer soil drives the increases. Nearer to the west coast, in Santa Barbara county, increases are driven by a combination of all four factors. In coastal San Diego county, the refined vulnerability threshold is the main driver of risk increase with softer soil and higher resolution also contributing. Inland San Diego county sees some location risk decreases, where harder soil is the main driver and higher resolution also contributes.

(Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico). Many locations will see an increase in earthquake risk. The refined vulnerability threshold is a driver of risk increase throughout, with other primary drivers being increased seismic hazard (Arizona and Utah) and softer soil (Arizona and New Mexico). In eastern Las Vegas, Nevada higher resolution contributes to the increase. Meanwhile, in western Las Vegas, Nevada, a decrease in risk is due to harder soil.

(Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee). Many locations will see a decrease in earthquake risk, and this is due to harder soils. A small number of locations will see risk increases, and this is usually because of softer soils except in Arkansas and Mississippi where the refined vulnerability threshold and higher resolution are the primary drivers. Near Nashville, Tennessee, the refined vulnerability threshold and higher resolution contribute, but softer soil is the main reason for the increase in earthquake risk.

Softer soils lead to an increase in earthquake risk near Fairbanks, Alaska and on Oahu, Hawaii. In Alaska the refined vulnerability threshold also contributes.

(Ontario, Québec). Many locations near Ottawa, Montreal, and Québec City will see a decrease in earthquake risk because of harder soil, with higher resolution being a secondary driver. Location risk increases in southern Québec are driven primarily by increased seismic hazard with soil amplification factor revisions being a secondary contributing factor.

North America

U.S. – Pacific Coast States (California)

U.S. – Pacific Coast States (california)

U.S. – Western States

U.S. – New Madrid Region

U.S. – Alaska and Hawaii

Canada – East

Canada – WEST

(British Columbia). Many locations near Vancouver will see an increase in the earthquake risk. The refined vulnerability threshold is the main driver with higher resolution contributing.

U.S. – Western States

U.S. – New Madrid Region

U.S. – Alaska and Hawaii

Canada – East

Canada – WEST

U.S. – Pacific Coast States (california)

U.S. – Western States

Canada – WEST

U.S. – New Madrid Region

U.S. – Alaska and Hawaii

Canada – East

U.S. – Pacific Coast States (California)

U.S. – Western States

U.S. – New Madrid Region

Canada – East

U.S. – Alaska and Hawaii

Canada – WEST

U.S. – Pacific Coast States (california)

U.S. – Western States

U.S. – New Madrid Region

U.S. – Alaska and Hawaii

Canada – East

Canada – WEST

U.S. – Pacific Coast States (california)

U.S. – Western States

U.S. – New Madrid Region

U.S. – Alaska and Hawaii

Canada – East

Canada – WEST

U.S. – Pacific Coast States (california)

U.S. – Western States

U.S. – New Madrid Region

U.S. – Alaska and Hawaii

Canada – East

Canada – west

Spain

Germany

Austria

Hungary

Netherlands

france

Spain

Most client locations on the east coast near Barcelona and Valencia will see a decrease in earthquake risk. This is mostly because of the lower seismic hazard, with harder soils playing a smaller role.

GERMANY

Austria

hungary

netherlands

france

Spain

Locations near Cologne, Frankfurt and Munich will notice a decrease in earthquake risk, which is due to lower seismic hazard, and in some cases, harder soils. Locations west of Dusseldorf and around Stuttgart will notice an increase in earthquake risk. These are due to higher seismic hazard, soft soil and higher resolution.

Germany

austria

hungary

netherlands

france

Spain

germany

Most locations will see a decrease in earthquake risk, and these are concentrated in northern Austria from Salzburg to Linz and near Vienna. The main driver is lower seismic hazard. In western Vienna harder soil is also a driver.

austria

hungary

Netherlands

france

Spain

germany

austria

Locations experiencing a decrease in risk are spread throughout the country, and these are due to lower seismic hazard.

hungary

Netherlands

france

spain

germany

austria

hungary

The earthquake risk increases in the southern part of the country mostly because of softer soils, with higher resolution playing a minor role. In the western part of the country, the refined vulnerability threshold also contributes.

netherlands

france

spain

germany

austria

hungary

netherlands

The earthquake risk increases in southern and eastern France near Lyon and Toulouse, and in northern France near Dunkirk and Lille. This is mainly because of softer soil and higher resolution, with the refined vulnerability threshold being a secondary driver. Earthquake risk decreases near Clermont-Ferrand in central France due to the lower seismic hazard.

france

Europe/ Middle East

Pacific Coast and Western States/ Canada – West

Canada – East

U.S. – New Madrid Region

switzerland

italy

israel

United Arab Emirates

switzerland

italy

israel

United Arab Emirates

switzerland

italy

israel

United Arab Emirates

switzerland

italy

israel

United Arab Emirates

switzerland

italy

israel

United Arab Emirates

switzerland

italy

israel

United Arab Emirates

switzerland

italy

israel

United Arab Emirates

spain

germany

austria

hungary

netherlands

The earthquake risk increases in the northern part of the country. Higher resolution is the major driver with softer soils at times being a secondary factor.

switzerland

italy

israel

United Arab Emirates

france

spain

germany

austria

hungary

netherlands

france

Many locations in northern and western Italy will see an increase in earthquake risk and this is largely due to a higher seismic hazard. The refined vulnerability threshold also contributes to the risk increase in northern Italy near Milan and Turin, and softer soil is a factor in areas near Turin. In the Po Valley east of Milan, the higher seismic hazard, softer soil, and the refined vulnerability threshold all contribute to the increased risk. Near Rome, the increased risk is due to the higher seismic hazard and softer soil.

italy

israel

United Arab Emirates

switzerland

spain

germany

austria

hungary

netherlands

france

switzerland

Many locations throughout Israel will see a higher seismic risk, and the most impactful increases are concentrated in the western part of the country. This is primarily due to increased seismic hazard and softer soils, with the refined vulnerability threshold playing a lesser role.

israel

italy

United Arab Emirates

spain

germany

austria

hungary

netherlands

france

switzerland

italy

Many locations near the western coast will see a decrease in earthquake risk, especially those near Abu Dhabi and southwest from Dubai. The lower risk is due to a lower seismic hazard.

United Arab Emirates

israel

United Arab Emirates

Europe

Israel

United Arab Emirates

The GEM Foundation is a public-private organization widely recognized as the leading source for seismic hazard and structural vulnerability data in the engineering and insurance industries.

Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation

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Mexico

U.S. – Pacific Coast States (California)

U.S. – Western States

U.S. – New Madrid Region

U.S. – Alaska and Hawaii

Canada – East

Many locations in northern Mexico, or in central Mexico around Mexico City and to its southeast and northwest, will see an increase in earthquake risk. Meanwhile, locations in central Mexico about 280 miles (450 km) northwest of Mexico City will see a decrease in earthquake risk. In northern Mexico, the most significant change is the general earthquake risk increase throughout the Baja California peninsula and in the coastal regions east of the Gulf of California. For Baja California, this is driven by the increased seismic hazard (except near Tijuana) and the refined vulnerability threshold; softer soil is also a main driver around Tijuana. Inland near Ciudad Juárez (south of El Paso, Texas), main drivers of risk increase include the slightly higher seismic hazard, softer soils and the refined vulnerability threshold with higher resolution being a secondary driver.

Mexico

Canada – WEST

MEXICO

Mexico

MEXICO

Mexico

U.S. – Pacific Coast States (Oregon, Washington)

U.S. – Pacific Coast States (Oregon, washington)

Many locations in Oregon and Washington will see a decrease in the earthquake risk. In Oregon, most risk decreases are in and around Portland. This is due to harder soils. In Washington, risk decreases occur from Tacoma to the area north of Seattle and are due to a combination of lower seismic hazard, harder soils and higher resolution. In eastern Washington, the risk increases at some locations and decreases at others with soil being the primary driver.

U.S. – Pacific Coast States (Oregon, Washington)

U.S. – Western States

U.S. – New Madrid Region

U.S. – Alaska and Hawaii

Canada – East

Canada – WEST

MEXICO

U.S. – Pacific Coast States (california)

U.S. – Pacific Coast States (Oregon, Washington)

In central Mexico, locations in the area around Mexico City and to its southeast around Puebla will see an increased earthquake risk due to an increased seismic hazard, with softer soils and higher resolution also contributing. Northwest of Mexico City in the Querétaro area the risk increase is driven mainly by softer soils; the refined vulnerability threshold and higher resolution are secondary drivers. The decreased earthquake risk northwest of San Luis Potosí and near Aguascalientes is driven by reduced seismic hazard and higher resolution. Finally, locations near Guadalajara will see a decreased earthquake risk due to reduced seismic hazard with harder soils contributing.

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